The Mavericks got one of their best victories of the season Friday night against Portland. Now they will rest several players in a back-to-back spot against the Cavaliers. This would seem troublesome, considering the Mavericks just lost to Cleveland by 15 on their home floor. Yet, the Cavaliers' home spread has adapted to them having just two losses at home. We saw something similar Friday when the Pacers narrowly covered an 8-point spread. Back Dallas as their reserves keep this within the 8.5.

These two teams played each other in Dallas on Wednesday and the Cavaliers won by 15 points. The Cavaliers present significant matchup problems up front with their size, and things won’t get any easier for the Mavericks with Maxi Kleber (hamstring) and Dwight Powell (thigh) both likely to be out. Combine that with the Cavaliers being 11-3-1 against the spread at home and they have a favorable opportunity to produce another lopsided victory.

Dallas is playing the second half of a back-to-back after beating Portland on Friday. The Cavs are 13-2 at home, while the Mavs are 3-9 on the road. My model says Cleveland covers almost 70% of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.

Going to play this Saturday game now as Cleveland just won handily in Dallas on Wednesday, and the Mavericks are playing tonight against a good Portland team and then obviously have to fly late to Ohio. There's always the chance Luka Doncic gets the second of a B2B off (in which case this ML would skyrocket), or, and I certainly hope not, tweaks an ankle or something. Dallas already lost a key rotation player earlier this week when Maxi Kleber suffered a tear in his right hamstring at practice on Tuesday. Cleveland has just two home losses and Dallas only three road wins.